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Now displaying: Category: Regional Economic Outlook
Jul 10, 2020

The IMF's latest Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is considerably worse than its April outlook and is subject to massive uncertainty. Economic activity this year is now projected to contract by some 3.2 percent, reflecting a weaker global economy and measures to contain the spread of the virus. In this podcast, Financial Times Africa Editor, David Pilling, and Kristalina Georgieva discuss the profound economic consequences of the pandemic for the continent and how the Fund is supporting countries through the crisis. The interview was produced by the Financial Times and can be found at FT.com/David-Pilling

Jun 25, 2020

While connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa lags behind other regions, digitalization is advancing fast and being embraced by those who do have access. Some countries are now global leaders in mobile money transactions—with a share of GDP average close to 25 percent, compared to just 5 percent in the rest of the world. In a region where infrastructure is often lacking, digital technologies offer ways to break down or leap over barriers. IMF economists Preya Sharma and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael are co-authors of the latest analytical chapter for the Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, which studies the impact of digitalization. In this podcast, Sharma and Woldemichael say expanding internet access in sub-Saharan Africa by an extra 10 percent of the population could increase real per capita GDP growth by 1 to 4 percentage points.

TRANSCRIPT

Jun 19, 2020

L'Afrique subsaharienne est en première ligne du changement climatique, avec des conditions météorologiques extrêmes qui font des ravages sur les infrastructures et la production agricole. Mais la crise sanitaire introduit un autre niveau de risque pour la chaîne alimentaire. Dans ce podcast, les économistes du FMI Genet Zinabou et Eric Pondi Endengle disent que l'augmentation de la fréquence et de l'intensité des catastrophes naturelles pèse sur la région, qui dépend fortement de l'agriculture pluviale. Les dernières Perspectives économiques examinent comment la région peut mieux gérer les types de chocs qui menacent son approvisionnement alimentaire.

Jun 3, 2020

Sub-Saharan Africa is on the front lines of climate change with extreme weather wreaking havoc on infrastructure and agricultural production. COVID-19 introduces yet another level of risk to the food chain. In this podcast, IMF economists Pritha Mitra and Seung Mo Choi say the increase in frequency and intensity of natural disasters is weighing down on the region, which relies heavily on rainfed agriculture. The latest Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa looks at how the region can better manage the types of shocks that threaten its food supply.

Transcript

May 12, 2020

L'Afrique subsaharienne fait face à une crise sanitaire et économique sans précédent qui menace d'inverser une grande partie des progrès de développement qu'elle a réalisés ces dernières années. Les dernières perspectives économiques régionales montrent une contraction de 1,6% cette année, le pire résultat jamais enregistré. Papa N'Diaye est chef de la recherche au Département Afrique du FMI qui publie les perspectives. Dans ce podcast, N'Diaye dit que d'ici la fin de 2020, la région fera face à des pertes de revenus d'environ 200 milliards de dollars par rapport à ce qu'elle attendait il y a 6 mois.

May 12, 2020

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that threatens to reverse much of the development progress it's made in recent years. The latest Regional Economic Outlook shows the economy will contract by 1.6 percent this year; the worst reading on record. Papa N'Diaye is Head of Research in the IMF’s African Department that publishes the outlook. In this podcast, N'Diaye says by the end of 2020, the region will face income losses of about $200 billion relative to what they were expecting 6 months ago.

May 4, 2020

No region has been spared the economic devastation of the coronavirus pandemic. And with the high level of oil-dependency and informality of many countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, Jihad Azour says the economic impact of COVID-19 has been dramatic. Azour heads the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, which has just published the region's economic outlook that shows formidable challenges in the face of the pandemic.

You can read Azour's’s blog and others about the global impact of the pandemic at Blogs.imf.org

TRANSCRIPT

Nov 1, 2019

The dramatic drop in commodity prices in 2014 has had lingering effects in sub-Saharan Africa. One such effect is a growing backlog of payments by governments to service providers, known as arrears. But despite the prevalence of arrears in the region, their causes and consequences are not well understood. The latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa looks at the economic and social impact of increasing arrears in recent years. In this podcast, IMF economists Samuel Delepierre and David Stenzel say domestic arrears can undermine private sector activity and citizens’ trust in the government.

Oct 18, 2019

Competition is considered to be an essential driving force of market economies. It’s said to ensure a more efficient allocation of resources and can boost innovation and productivity. But what happens when there isn’t enough competition? The latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa looks at how the lack of competition in the region is hurting the poor and undermining economic growth. In this podcast, IMF economists Reda Cherif and Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia say more competition could lower prices and increase welfare.

Photo: Competition makes the economy work for people. (iStock by Getty images/ Stefan_Ganev)

May 8, 2019

In 2018, African Union members established the African Continental Free Trade Area in an effort to boost regional trade. They agreed to eliminate tariffs on most goods, liberalize the trade of services and address obstacles to trade between African countries. The African free trade agreement has since been ratified by 22 countries and is likely to take effect later this year. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa studies the potential impact of the agreement that will establish a market of 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of US$2.5 trillion dollars. In this podcast, economists Reda Cherif and Geremia Palomba say this could be an economic game changer for the continent.

Geremia Palomba is a Deputy Division Chief and Reda Cherif is a Senior Economist in IMF’s African Department.

Apr 12, 2019

A third of countries in sub-Saharan Africa are currently involved in conflict or experiencing post-conflict tension, forcing an estimated 18 million people away from their homes and livelihoods. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa provides an in-depth analysis of conflict trends and the socio-economic challenges faced by countries in the region. Economists, Siddharth Kothari and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi spearheaded the study. In this podcast, they say conflicts strain public finances and shift scarce resources away from social and developmental spending, accentuating their debilitating consequences.

Mahvash Saeed Qureshi is a Deputy Division Chief and Siddharth Kothari is an economist in the Regional Studies Division of the IMF’s African department.

Nov 27, 2018

In the wake of the global financial crisis and with low interest rates lingering in most advanced economies, investors have increasingly been looking at Africa for investment opportunities. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa examines what this spectacular increase in capital flows means for the region. In this podcast, economist Mahvash Saeed Qureshi says the recent rise in investment capital offers a lot of opportunities but also carries risks. Qureshi led the research team that wrote the report. 

Mahvash Saeed Qureshi is a Deputy Division Chief in the IMF’s African department.

Photo: Global factors such as U.S. interest rates and commodity prices have a direct impact on capital flows to sub-Saharan Africa. (iStock by Getty Images/fotopoly)

Oct 11, 2018

Oil prices have bounced back somewhat but the IMF's latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa shows why energy exporters shouldn’t get too comfortable. "The level of oil prices that we see currently don’t imply growth rates in the future that are high enough, and that are anywhere near what we had seen before the oil slump.” Papa N’Diaye is head of research in the IMF’s African Department, and in this podcast, he says while the macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa continues to strengthen­–thanks to ongoing reforms and stronger global growth, growth rates still fall short of what the region really needs. N’Diaye oversaw the writing of this latest regional economic outlook.

Photo: Now What? Growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa are too low to create enough jobs for its growing labor force. (iStock by Getty Images/peopleimages).

Oct 11, 2018

Le dernier rapport du FMI sur les perspectives économiques régionales indique que la croissance s’accélère, grâce en partie, à la hausse du cours des produits de base. »En fin, la raison pour laquelle la croissance augmente c’est par ce que les pays exportateurs de pétrole se remettent peu à peu de ce choc avec le bénéfice des prix plus élevés du pétrole.» Papa N’Diaye, dirige la division des études régionales au département Afrique du FMI, et il dit que tandis que la perspective macroéconomique pour l'Afrique subsaharienne continue à se renforcer–merci aux réformes en cours et la croissance mondiale plus forte, les taux de croissance ne répondent toujours pas au besoin réel de la région. N’Diaye a supervisé la rédaction de cette nouvelle perspective économique régionale.

Photo: Et maintenant? La croissance en Afrique subsaharienne reste trop faible pour créer suffisamment d’emplois pour absorber l’augmentation rapide de sa population active. (iStock by Getty Images/peopleimages)

Jun 21, 2018

Le dernier rapport du FMI sur les perspectives économiques régionales de l’Afrique subsaharienne indique qu’avec l’adoption des bonnes politiques, la région pourrait globalement accroître ses recettes publiques de jusqu’à 5 % du PIB. Alex Segura est chef de mission pour le Gabon et il a dirigé l’équipe qui a écrit le chapitre sur la mobilisation des recettes fiscales en Afrique subsaharienne. Dans ce podcast, Segura explique que les gens sont plus susceptibles de se conformer à leurs obligations s’ils sont convaincus que le fisc est équitable.

Alex Segura est conseiller au département Afrique du FMI.

Jun 21, 2018

The latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa suggests better policy design could help countries increase tax revenues by as much as 5 percent of GDP. Alex Segura heads the IMF team for Gabon, and led the team of economists who wrote the chapter on raising revenues in the report. In this podcast, Segura says when people perceive that the tax system is fair, they’re much more likely to accept their tax obligations.

Alex Segura is an Advisor in the IMF’s African department.

May 8, 2018

The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa shows a modest uptick in growth largely driven by stronger global growth and higher commodity prices. In this podcast the IMF’s Papa N’Diaye, says it’s time to implement reforms that will firm up the recovery. The study shows growth picking up from 2⅔ percent in 2017 to 3½ percent in 2018. N’Diaye heads the team of IMF economists who write the report and he says the uptick is good news for the region which has been experiencing a slowdown in economic growth over the last few years.

Jan 26, 2018

In the new world of lower commodity prices, many sub-Saharan African countries are having to diversify their economies. And while sub-Saharan Africa has had periods of rapid growth, the process by which workers move from low-productivity jobs to better paying higher productivity jobs has been slower than in other regions. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa devotes an entire chapter to studying the potential benefits of a stepped-up diversification agenda. In this podcast, co-author Axel Schimmelpfennig says Africa’s young entrepreneurs should be at the heart of the diversification process.

Axel Schimmelpfennig, IMF Mission Chief for Uganda

Oct 30, 2017

The IMF's latest regional economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa suggests the broad-based slowdown in sub-Saharan Africa is easing. In this podcast, co-author Jarek Wieczorek, says growth is up slightly from last year, but so is public debt. "If we maintain the trend we saw in the last 3 years, the debt will become unsustainable in many sub-Saharan African countries.”

Contributors: Jarek Wieczorek, Head of the Regional Studies Division in the IMF’s African Department

Oct 30, 2017

Les dernières perspectives de l’Afrique subsaharienne portent à croire que le ralentissement généralisé s’atténue. Dans ce podcast, coauteur Jarek Wieczorek, explique la croissance s’accélère, mais la dette publique augmente aussi. « Si la tendance actuelle persiste, la dette deviendra insoutenable dans plusieurs de pays ».

Jarek Wieczorek, chef de la division des études régionales au Département Afrique du FMI

Jun 28, 2017

By 2035 sub-Saharan Africa will have more working-age people than the rest of the world’s regions combined. This growing workforce bulge will have to be met with jobs, but the region remains one of the toughest places to do business. Meanwhile, small-unregistered household businesses provide up to 90 percent of jobs outside of agriculture. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa devotes an entire chapter on the informal economy, and in this podcast we speak with economist Ali Mansoor, coauthor of the study.  

Contributors:

Ali Mansoor, IMF Division Chief for West Africa, and coauthor of the report.

May 9, 2017

The IMF's latest regional economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa shows growth has fallen to its lowest level in twenty years. In this podcast, co-author Céline Allard, says while some countries like Senegal and Kenya continue to experience growth rates higher than 6 percent, growth has slowed for two thirds of countries in the region bringing down average growth in 2016 to 1.4 percent.

Contributors: Céline Allard, Head of the Regional Studies Division in the IMF’s African Department

May 9, 2017

La dernière édition des Perspectives économiques régionales, indique que la croissance en Afrique subsaharienne est tombée à son plus bas niveau depuis plus de 20 ans. Dans ce podcast, coauteur Céline Allard, explique si certains pays continuent d’enregistrer une croissance supérieure à 6 %, l’expansion a ralenti dans deux tiers des pays de la région, ce qui a réduit la croissance moyenne à 1,4 % en 2016.

Contributors: Céline Allard, chef de la division des études régionales au Département Afrique du FMI

Oct 25, 2016

The IMF's latest regional economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa shows growth at its lowest level in more than 20 years. But in this podcast, the African Department’s new Director, Abebe Aemro Selassie, says it’s a mixed story of struggling oil-exporters and strong performers.

 Contributors: Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF’s African Department

Oct 25, 2016

Le dernier rapport du FMI sur les Perspectives économiques régionales prévoit que le taux de croissance économique de l’Afrique subsaharienne devrait descendre à son plus bas niveau depuis plus de deux décennies. Mais Céline Allard, chef de la division des études régionales au Département Afrique, dit que plusieurs pays continuent de croitre de manière très robuste

Contributeurs: Céline Allard, chef de la division des études régionales au Département Afrique du FMI

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